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July 6, 2009
John Barry, author of the bestselling and
highly influential book The Great Influenza: The Epic
Story of the Deadliest Plague in History (2004), has
turned his attention to the current pandemic flu that continues
to infect people across the globe. In a paper released today
by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Barry
synthesizes what we know about novel H1N1, discusses what
we need to do to combat the threat, and reveals the futility
of some of the actions taken by governments and public health
officials to date. Further, he warns of the much more lethal
H5N1 flu virus, the “bird flu,” which could
become a far more dangerous pandemic.
Reminding us of influenza pandemics of the
past, Barry explains, “The novel H1N1 virus seems
thus far to be following the pattern of 1889, 1918, and
1957, and it seems highly likely that it will return in
full flower.” A full-fledged global pandemic could,
estimates Barry, cut worldwide GDP by up to 6 percent and
cause massive supply chain disruptions, even with the milder
H1N1.
Barry also reviews the non-pharmaceutical
interventions (NPIs) supported by his colleagues on the
MIT flu research team. Though skeptical of quarantine and
automatic school closings, he endorses many of the NPIs
that put individuals in a position of modest control, including
hand washing, social distancing, and face masks for the
ill.
Finally, Barry highlights the need for winning
public trust as a key component of getting and sustaining
compliance. Critical of governments that have not exercised
“full and candid disclosure” to “contain
panic,” Barry explains that “you do not manage
the truth. You tell the truth.”
John Barry is a Distinguished Scholar at the
Center for Bioenvironmental Research of Tulane and Xavier
Universities. He serves on the advisory board at MIT’s
Center for Engineering Systems Fundamentals, and has advised
the Bush and Obama administrations on influenza, along with
other federal, state, and World Health Organization officials
on influenza, crisis management, and risk communication.
“Having John Barry work with us provides
us with a deep understanding of how influenza works and
what can be done to stop the spread,” says Richard
C. Larson, MIT’s Mitsui Professor in the Department
of Civil and Environmental Engineering and in the Engineering
Systems Division. Larson heads a team at MIT that has been
modeling flu progression and advocating for NPIs.
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