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Change Propagation Analysis in Complex Technical Systems

Understanding how and why changes propagate during engineering design is critical because most products and systems emerge from predecessors and not through clean sheet design. This research develops and applies change propagation analysis methods and extended prior reasoning through examination of large data sets from industry. One such data set at Raytheon Integrated Defense Systems included 41,500 change requests, spanning eight years during the design of a complex sensor system.

image

 

Propagation network of 2,600 connected changes in a Sensor
System at Raytheon IDS

Courtesy of Professor Olivier de Weck

The research used graph theory to define how specific network relationships of connected “parent,” “children,” and “sibling” changes are resolved over time and mapped to various subsystem areas.

The research also developed a normalized change propagation index, showing the relative strength of subsystems or components on the absorber-multiplier spectrum between -1 and +1. Multipliers send out more changes than they receive and are good candidates for more focused change management and embedding of flexibility. Patterns emerge from such industrial data and offer clear implications for technical change management approaches in system design.

The insights from this research have had an impact on program and change management at Raytheon, Xerox, and BP and have led to the formation of a research consortium of 20 industrial firms as sponsored by the Cambridge-MIT Institute.


Giffin M., O . de Weck, G . B ounova, R . K eller, C . E ckert, and J . C larkson, “Change Propagation Analysis in C omplex Technical S ystems,” AS ME 2007 Design E ngineering Technical Conferences, DE TC2007-34652, L as Vegas, N V, S eptember 4–7, 2007 (in press for ASME Journal of Mechanical Design).

 
         
MIT SoE MIT Sloan School of Management MIT School of Science SHASS SA+P