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ESD Research Domains
ESD Research Approaches
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SARS and avian flu have raised awareness of the
risk of pandemic flu, and billions of dollars are now being devoted
to influenza research. However, little attention has focused on
simple behavioral changes that can reduce the incidence of infection.
This research merges probabilistic model building with social
science and management principles, to show that simple, non-pharmaceutical
interventions (NPIs) could significantly reduce the death toll
of an epidemic.
To depict the social contact behavior of a heterogeneous
population susceptible to infection, the researchers developed
a non-homogeneous probabilistic mixing model. They partitioned
the population into subgroups, based on frequency of contacts
and infection propensities, and then developed a difference equation
model to depict the evolution of disease. This model showed that
early exponential growth of the disease among those with frequent
human contact may not be indicative of the general population’s
susceptibility, and social distancing may be effective in combating
flu.
Under reasonable assumptions, the model predicts
that early and intense use of NPIs can reduce—by as much
as 20 to 40 percent—flu infection and death rates. This
research led to a two-day workshop on pandemic flu for representatives
from 12 states, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,
the US Department of Homeland Security, and others. In recognition
of this work, Professor Richard C. Larson has been invited to
become a member of the Board on Health Sciences Policy of the
Institute of Medicine of the National Academies.
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Infection
spread within a community that reacts to previous day’s
news only by proportionally scaling back the average number
of contacts for all its members. (click
image to see larger size)
Courtesy of Professor
Richard Larson
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Larson, R .C., “Simple Models of Influenza
Progression Within a H eterogeneous Population,” Operations
Research, 55(3), 399–412, May–June 2007.
Nigmatulina, K .R. and R .C. L arson, “Living
with Influenza: Impacts of G overnment Imposed and Voluntarily
S elected Interventions,” to appear in European Journal
of Operational Research, 2008.
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