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Technology Infusion Analysis Under Uncertainty

Most new technologies only deliver value once they are infused into a parent system. While the literature on innovation is abundant, no rigorous methodologies have been available to evaluate the risks and opportunities of new technologies within a wider competitive and regulatory context.

Dr. Smaling developed a technology infusion assessment methodology to uantify the potential performance benefits of new technologies using multi-objective Pareto analysis. The costs of infusing new technologies are determined by
calculating the architectural invasiveness of each technology concept relative to a baseline system. The degree of invasiveness of different system architectures is related to the amount of design change required to accommodate the new technology. This can be quantified with a component-based change Design Structure Matrix, ?DSM. Risks and opportunities are measured by weighing the future benefits and costs of a new technology against uncertain exogenous variables and scenarios such as gains that may be made by competing technologies and potential future regulatory actions. The technology infusion methodology was demonstrated for a hydrogen-enhanced combustion engine, where the effects of integrating a plasma fuel reformer into a vehicle were quantified in terms of fuel economy, NOx emissions, and vehicle add-on costs.

Relationship Between Technology Development,
Technology Infusion, and the Societal Impact of Technology

The methodology for carrying out technology infusion analysis was subsequently adopted and refined at Xerox Corporation to assess new technologies for digital printing systems. This work received the Best Paper in Systems Engineering Award 2007 from the International Council on Systems Engineering.

Smaling, R. and O. de Weck, “Assessing R isks and Opportunities of Technology Infusion in System Design,” Systems Engineering, 10(1), 1–25, 2007 (Award for Best Paper in Systems Engineering from INCOSE ).