ESD - Working Paper Series

METHODS/ PROCESSES
Agent-based Modeling CLIOS Process Control engineering Data Mining Design Structure Matrices Differential Equations Economic Modeling EVSMA General Lean Modeling	Object Process Methodolgy (OPM) Optimization Real Options Risk Assessment Scenario Planning Simulation STAMP Systems Analysis System Dynamics Systems Engineering Trade-off/Positional Analysis

APPLICATIONS
Aerospace Building Technology Defense Energy Environment Health Information Technology Infrastructure Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) IT/Knowledge Management	Lean Manufacturing National Security Product Development Public Systems Safety/Security Strategy Development Supply Chain Management Telecommunications Transportation

GENERAL TOPICS
Architecture Competitiveness Design Education ESD Symposium Industry/ Academic Interactions Networks Organizational Issues	Public Policy Regarding Technology Sociotechnical Issues System definitions/ classifications/ epistemology Systems Thinking Technology Transformation/ Change

SYSTEM CHARACTERISTICS

Complexity

A Framework for Technology Forecasting and Visualization
by Wei Lee Woon, Masdar Institute of Science and Technology; Andreas Henschel, Masdar Institute of Science and Technology; and Stuart Madnick, MIT (.pdf ESD-WP-2009-16)
Approach and Preliminary Results for Early Growth Technology Analysis
by Blaine Ziegler, MIT; Ayse Kaya Firat, MIT; Stuart Madnick, MIT; Wei Lee Woon, Masdar Institute of Science and Technology; Steven Camina, MIT; Clare Li, MIT Affiliate; and Erik Fogg, MIT Affiliate (.pdf ESD-WP-2009-15)
COIM: An Object-Process Based Method for Analyzing Architectures of Complex, Interconnected, Large-Scale Socio-Technical Systems
by Carlos A. Osorio, Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez; Dov Dori, Technion, Israel Institute of Technology and MIT; and Joseph Sussman, MIT(.pdf ESD-WP-2009-12)
Combating System-Level Quality Problems in Complex Product Development
by Daniel E. Whitney, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (.pdf ESD-WP-2007-12)
Design and Management of Flexible Transportation Networks Through the use of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS)
by Joshua McConnell, McKinsey & Co., Sydney Australia and Josesph Sussman, MIT (.pdf ESD-WP-2008-08)
Enabling Global Price Comparison with Semantic Integration of Web Data
by Hongwei Zhu, College of Business and Public Administration, Old Dominion University; Stuart E. Madnick, Sloan School of Management, MIT and Michael Siegel, Sloan School of Management, MIT (.pdf ESD-WP-2008-03)
ESD Internal Symposium: Bits and Bucks: Modeling complex systems by information flow
by Seth Llyod, MIT and Thomas Lloyd, McKinsey Los Angeles (.pdf ESD-WP-2003-01.17)
ESD Internal Symposium: Collected Views on Complexity in Systems
by Joseph M. Sussman, MIT (.pdf ESD-WP-2003-01.06)
ESD Internal Symposium: Complex systems: a review
by Seth Lloyd, MIT (.pdf ESD-WP-2003-01.16)
ESD Internal Symposium: The Link between Cognition and the Complexity of Engineering Systems Design
by John R. Williams, MIT (.pdf ESD-WP-2003-01.18)
Experiences and Challenges with using CERT Data to Analyze
by Stuart Madnick, MIT: Xitong Li, MIT; and Nazli Choucri, MIT (.pdf ESD-WP-2009-17)
Ideas on Complexity in Systems – Twenty Views
by Joseph M. Sussman, MIT (.html ESD-WP-2000-02, .pdf ESD-WP-2000-02)
Managing Complexity with the Department of Defense Architecture Framework: Development of a Dynamic System Architecture Model
by Matthew G. Richards, MIT; Nirav B. Shah, MIT; Daniel E. Hastings, MIT and Donna H. Rhodes MIT (.pdf ESD-WP-2007-09)
Preventing Accidents and Building a Culture of Safety: Insights from a Simulation Model
by John Lyneis, Sloan School of Management, MIT and Stuart Madnick, Sloan School of Management, MIT (.pdf ESD-WP-2009-02)
Reconciliation of temporal semantic heterogeneity in evolving information systems
by Hongwei Zhu, College Business and Public Administration, Old Dominion University and Stuart Madnick, Sloan School of Management, MIT (.pdf ESD-WP-2009-03)
Screening for Real Options “In” an Engineering System: A Step Towards Flexible System Development; PART I: The Use of Design Matrices to Create an End-to-End Representation of a Complex Socio-Technical System
by Jason E. Bartolomei, Richard de Neufville, Daniel E. Hastings, and Donna H. Rhodes (.pdf ESD-WP-2006-08)
Semantic Integration Approach to Efficient Business Data Supply Chain: Integration Approach to Interoperable XBRL
by Hongwei Zhu, College of Business and Public Administration, Old Dominion University and Stuart E. Madnick, Sloan School of Management, MIT (.pdf ESD-WP-2008-02)
The Use of Information Systems in Collocated and Distributed Teams: A Test of the 24-Hour Knowledge Factory
by Satwik Seshasai, Doctoral Candidate, Engineering Systems, MIT;
Alan J. Malter, Assistant Professor, Department of Marketing
Eller College of Management, University of Arizona; and
Amar Gupta, Thomas R. Brown Professor of Management and Technology, Eller College of Management, University of Arizona (.pdf ESD-WP-2007-16)
Understanding Complexity: Dynamic Analysis of Combat Vehicle Accidents
by Maj. Nathan A. Minami, Instructor/Analyst; United States Military Academy; Department of Systems Engineering and Stuart E. Madnick, John Norris Maguire Professor of Information Technologies & Professor of Engineering Systems; Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management & School of Engineering (.pdf ESD-WP-2008-06)

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Flexibility

A Classification of Uncertainty for Early Product and System Design
by Olivier de Weck, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Claudia Eckert, University of Cambridge (.pdf ESD-WP-2007-10)
Advances in Supply Chain Management Decision Support Systems: Potential for Improving Decision Support Catalysed by Semantic Interoperability between Systems
by Shoumen Palit Austin Datta, MIT (.pdf ESD-WP-2006-10)
Context Mediation Demonstration of Counter-Terrorism Intelligence (CTI) Integration
by Stuart E. Madnick, Allen Moulton, Michael D. Siegel, MIT Sloan School of Management (.pdf ESD-WP-2006-05)
Design and Management of Flexible Transportation Networks Through the use of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS)
by Joshua McConnell, McKinsey & Co., Sydney Australia and Josesph Sussman, MIT (.pdf ESD-WP-2008-08)
Enabling Global Price Comparison with Semantic Integration of Web Data
by Hongwei Zhu, College of Business and Public Administration, Old Dominion University; Stuart E. Madnick, Sloan School of Management, MIT and Michael Siegel, Sloan School of Management, MIT (.pdf ESD-WP-2008-03)
Extracting the Essence of Flexibility in System Design
by Joseph H. Saleh, Daniel E. Hastings, and Dava J. Newman (.pdf ESD-WP-2001-04)
Framework for the Analysis of the Adaptability, Extensibility, and Scalability of Semantic Information Integration and the Context Mediation Approach
by Thomas Gannon, MITRE Corporation; Stuart Madnick, Sloan School of Management, MIT; Allen Moulton, Sloan School of Management, MIT; Michael Siegel, Sloan School of Management, MIT; Marwan Sabbouh, MITRE Corporation; and Hongwei Zhu, Old Dominion University (.pdf ESD-WP-2009-05)
Low-Cost Airports for Low-Cost Airlines: Flexible Design to Manage the Risks
by Richard de Neufville, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (.pdf ESD-WP-2007-15)
Screening for Real Options “In” an Engineering System: A Step Towards Flexible System Development; PART I: The Use of Design Matrices to Create an End-to-End Representation of a Complex Socio-Technical System
by Jason E. Bartolomei, Richard de Neufville, Daniel E. Hastings, and Donna H. Rhodes (.pdf ESD-WP-2006-08)

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“ilities”

Framework for the Analysis of the Adaptability, Extensibility, and Scalability of Semantic Information Integration and the Context Mediation Approach
by Thomas Gannon, MITRE Corporation; Stuart Madnick, Sloan School of Management, MIT; Allen Moulton, Sloan School of Management, MIT; Michael Siegel, Sloan School of Management, MIT; Marwan Sabbouh, MITRE Corporation; and Hongwei Zhu, Old Dominion University (.pdf ESD-WP-2009-05)
Lean Aerospace Engineering
by Earll M. Murman, Ford Professor of Engineering Emeritus, Aeronautics and Astronautics Department and Engineering Systems, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (.pdf ESD-WP-2008-01)
The 24-Hour Knowledge Factory Paradigm: The Evolving Model for Offshoring based on Strategic, Economic, Legal, Health, Technical, and Other Considerations
by Amar Gupta, University of Arizona and MIT (.pdf ESD-WP-2009-10)

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Modularity

An Algorithm and Metric for Network Decomposition from Similarity Matrices: Application to Positional Analyses
by Mo-Han Hsieh, Engineering Systems Division, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Christopher L. Magee, Engineering Systems Division & Department of Mechanical Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (.pdf ESD-WP-2007-13)
ESD Internal Symposium: Physical Limits to Modularity
by Daniel E. Whitney (.pdf ESD-WP-2003-01.03)
Measuring and Understanding Hierarchy as an Architectural Element in Industry Sectors (.pdf ESD-WP-2009-06)
by Jianxi Luo, MIT; Daniel E. Whitney, MIT; Carliss Y. Baldwin HBS; and Christopher L. Magee, MIT
The Use of Information Systems in Collocated and Distributed Teams: A Test of the 24-Hour Knowledge Factory
by Satwik Seshasai, Doctoral Candidate, Engineering Systems, MIT;
Alan J. Malter, Assistant Professor, Department of Marketing
Eller College of Management, University of Arizona; and
Amar Gupta, Thomas R. Brown Professor of Management and Technology, Eller College of Management, University of Arizona (.pdf ESD-WP-2007-16)
Three Perspectives on Modularity – A Literature Review of a Product Concept for Assembled Hardware Products
by Sebastian Fixson (.pdf ESD-WP-2001-06)
Use of Collaborative Technologies and Knowledge Sharing in Co-located and Distributed Teams: Towards the 24-Hour Knowledge Factory
by Amar Gupta, University of Arizona and MIT; Elisa Mattarelli, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia; Satwik Seshasai, MIT and IBM; and Joseph Broschak, University of Arizona (.pdf ESD-WP-2009-11)

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Robustness

The Progress in Wireless Data Transport and its Role in the Evolving Internet
By Mario A. Amaya and Christopher L. Magee, Engineering Systems Division, MIT (.pdf ESD-WP-2008-20)

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Stability

ESD Internal Symposium: The Impact of Instability on Complex Social and Technical Systems
by Joel Cutcher-Gershenfeld and Eric Rebentisch (.pdf ESD-WP-2003-01.21)
Towards quantification of the Role of Materials Innovation in overall Technological Development
by Christopher L. Magee, MIT (.pdf ESD-WP-2009-09)

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State Stability

Understanding & Modeling State Stability: Exploiting System Dynamics
Nazli Choucri, Christi Electris, Daniel Goldsmith, Dinsha Mistree, by Stuart E. Madnick, J. Bradley Morrison, Michael D. Siegel, Margaret Sweitzer-Hamilton, MIT Sloan School of Management (.pdf ESD-WP-2006-04)

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Sustainability

America Disrupted: Dynamics of the Technical Capability Crisis
by Dan Sturtevant (.pdf ESD-WP-2008-21)
Promoting the Concept of Sustainable Transportation within the by Federal System - The Need to Reinvent the U.S. DOT
by Ralph P. Hall and Joseph M. Sussman (.pdf ESD-WP-2006-13)
Will Nano-Butlers Work for Micro-Payments? Innovation in Business Services Model may Reduce Cost of Delivering Global Healthcare Services
by Shoumen Palit Austin Datta, MIT (.pdf ESD-WP-2007-17)

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Uncertainty

A Classification of Uncertainty for Early Product and System Design
by Olivier de Weck, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Claudia Eckert, University of Cambridge (.pdf ESD-WP-2007-10)
A Framework for Technology Forecasting and Visualization
by Wei Lee Woon, Masdar Institute of Science and Technology; Andreas Henschel, Masdar Institute of Science and Technology; and Stuart Madnick, MIT (.pdf ESD-WP-2009-16)
Advances in Supply Chain Management: Potential to Improve Forecasting Accuracy
by Shoumen Palit Austin Datta, MIT, Clive W. J. Granger, University of California (.pdf ESD-WP-2006-11)
Approach and Preliminary Results for Early Growth Technology Analysis
by Blaine Ziegler, MIT; Ayse Kaya Firat, MIT; Stuart Madnick, MIT; Wei Lee Woon, Masdar Institute of Science and Technology; Steven Camina, MIT; Clare Li, MIT Affiliate; and Erik Fogg, MIT Affiliate (.pdf ESD-WP-2009-15)
Building Real Options into Physical Systems with Stochastic Mixed-Integer Programming
by Tao Wang and Richard de Neufville, MIT (.pdf ESD-WP-2005-05)
Design and Management of Flexible Transportation Networks Through the use of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS)
by Joshua McConnell, McKinsey & Co., Sydney Australia and Josesph Sussman, MIT (.pdf ESD-WP-2008-08)
Engineering Responses to Pandemics
by Richard Larson, MIT and Karima R. Nigmatulina, MIT (.pdf ESD-WP-2009-14)
ESD Internal Symposium: Incorporating Uncertainty Into Conceptual Design of Space System Architectures
by Daniel E. Hastings, Annalisa L. Weigel, Myles A. Walton (.pdf ESD-WP-2003-01.01)
Evaluating and Aggregating Data Believability across Quality Sub-Dimensions and Data Lineage
by Nicolas Pratt, ESSEC Business School and Stuart E. Madnick, Sloan School of Management, MIT (.pdf ESD-WP-2008-05)
Experiences and Challenges with using CERT Data to Analyze
by Stuart Madnick, MIT: Xitong Li, MIT; and Nazli Choucri, MIT (.pdf ESD-WP-2009-17)
Low-Cost Airports for Low-Cost Airlines: Flexible Design to Manage the Risks
by Richard de Neufville, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (.pdf ESD-WP-2007-15)
Management of Technology Investment Risk with Real Options-Based Design: A case study of an innovative building technology
by Lara Greden, Richard de Neufville, Leon Glicksman (.pdf ESD-WP-2005-04)
Measuring Data Believability: A Provenance Approach
by Nicolas Pratt, ESSEC Business School and Stuart E. Madnick, Sloan School of Management, MIT (.pdf ESD-WP-2008-04)
Pandemic Flu: Yes, We Can Do Something About It!
by Richard C. Larson, Center for Engineering Systems Fundamentals, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (.pdf ESD-WP-2007-22)
Revisiting R0, the Basic Reproductive Number for Pandemic Influenza
by Richard C. Larson, MIT (.pdf ESD-WP-2008-10)
Screening for Real Options “In” an Engineering System: A Step Towards Flexible System Development; PART I: The Use of Design Matrices to Create an End-to-End Representation of a Complex Socio-Technical System
by Jason E. Bartolomei, Richard de Neufville, Daniel E. Hastings, and Donna H. Rhodes (.pdf ESD-WP-2006-08)
White Papter on Novel H1N1: Prepared for the MIT Center for Engineering Systems Fundamentals
by John M. Barry, Distinguished Scholar, Tulane University Center for Bioenvironmental Research; Member, Advisory Board, MIT CESF (.pdf ESD-WP-2009-07-092709)