Introduction:
Learn
more:
Short
Takes on the Literature
- In the burgeoning literature on engineering
systems and related fields, we can all use
some navigational aids. To that end, the
ESD Working Paper series introduces a new
feature "Short Takes on the Literature"
in which brief informal commentaries by
MIT people on books, reports and papers
in our field are made available to the community.
We hope you find these of value and will
also see fit to contribute your own opinions
on the literature as well.
List
of Papers for 2008:
(in reverse chronological
order)
 ESD-WP-2008-17
Will Nano-Butlers Work for Micro-Payments?
Innovation in Business Services Model
may Reduce Cost of Delivering Global Healthcare
Services
by
Shoumen Palit Austin Datta,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
This
paper represents an emerging view of personalized
care and patient-centric systems approach.
It integrates biomedical informatics and
business services. A potentially innovative
model may evolve from this convergence and
may serve as a global template to reduce
cost of service. The future of global healthcare
may increasingly rely on “sense and
then, respond” systems but excluding
the instances of exception management, necessary
for accidents and emergencies. Solutions
suggested in this paper are neither complete
nor a panacea but are elements that deserve
inclusion in the delivery of healthcare
that may combine a portfolio of approaches
to suit the needs of the community. As a
potential future direction to improve analytics
in healthcare, the concept of molecular
semantics is proposed.
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ESD-WP-2008-16
Collaborative Systems Thinking: A survey
of literature in search of team-level systems
thinking within aerospace teams
by
Caroline Twomey Lamb
Doctoral Candidate, Department
of Aeronautics and Astronautics,
Lean Advancement Initiative
This
literature review was prepared in support
of research investigating team-level systems
thinking. Three critical constructs were
identified-team, process, and culture-and
the pertinent literature is explored in
this white paper. The research focused on
the aerospace industry, and as such, this
white paper uses illustrative examples from
the aerospace industry wherever possible.
A fourth construct, that of team-level or
collaborative systems thinking, is also
addressed. This fourth construct is a new
construct put forth by the author and her
advisors.
This
white paper is divided into two main section.
The first motivates research on team-level
systems thinking as a solution to the growing
gap between engineering design and engineering
analysis. The second section treats the
four critical research constructs identified
above. For the first three constructs, a
definition is provided based on available
literature, examples grounded in aerospace
are provided, common metrics are introduced,
and threats to validity are discussed. For
the fourth construct, a discussion of available
literature is presented and a construct
definition is proposed.
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ESD-WP-2008-15
Taming the Business Cycles in Commercial
Aviation: Trade-space analysis of strategic
alternatives using simulation modeling
by
Sgouris Sgouridis
Assistant Professor, Engineering
Systems and Management, Masdar Institute
of Science and Technology
Joseph
Sussman
Professor of Civil and Environmental
Engineering and Engineering Systems, MIT
Henry
Weil
Senior Lecturer, Sloan School of
Management
Kirkor
Bozdogan
Principal Research Associate, Center
for Technology, Policy and Industrial Devel
We
investigate the effectiveness of strategic
alternatives that are designed to dampen
the cyclicality manifest in the commercial
aviation related industries. The constituent
enterprises of the commercial aviation system
exhibit managerial and operational independence
and have diverse value functions that often
viewed the enterprises to view their competition
as a zero-sum game. We argue that this need
not always be the case; in the commercial
aviation system both airline and airframe
manufacturers constituents would benefit
from a steadier influx of aircraft that
counters the current situation that is characterized
by relatively stable demand growth rate
for air travel while airline profitability
and aircraft ordering fluctuate intensely.
In order to identify and evaluate the symbiotic
potential, we use a system dynamics model
of commercial aviation. After testing several
individual strategic alternatives, we find
that capacity management is key to cycle
moderation for non-collusive strategies.
Comparing faster aircraft deliveries to
semi-fixed production schedules among other
alternatives shows only the latter alternative
to be Pareto efficient.
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ESD-WP-2008-14
A Comparison of GDP-Based Productivity in
Ambulatory & Inpatient Healthcare: 1998-2005
by
David Hartzband
Engineering Systems Division
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
A
comparison of GDP-based productivity in
the ambulatory and inpatient (hospitals
and residential treatment centers) healthcare
segments shows that labor productivity,
measured as GDP dollar contribution per
compensation dollars, hours worked and full-time
equivalent employees was strong in both
actual value and in per cent gain (1998-2005).
The actual values were higher in ambulatory
with GDP contribution per hours worked ranging
from $0.04-$0.06 (24% gain), per dollar
of compensation ranging from $1.41 to $1.48
(4% gain) and per FTE from $71,000 to $94,000
(25% gain) as opposed to $0.02 to $0.03
(3% gain), $1.10 to $1.13 (3% gain) and
$38,000 to $52,000 (42% gain) for inpatient
healthcare. In contrast, capital efficiency
was static for both segments over this period
indicating that the use of capital was ineffective.
Total Factor Productivity (TFP) was also
calculated and showed a similar pattern
with ambulatory healthcare having higher
TFP throughout the period, but neither healthcare
segment showing any gain (or loss) in TFP.
The two segments have different profiles
for the factors influencing TFP with inpatient
healthcare having made both some R&D
and substantial technology investments,
mainly in medical devices. Neither segment
has made large organizational or work process
changes, and it appears that substantial,
additional productivity gains could be made
as these factors, R&D investment, technology
acquisition and adoption, work process and
organizational redesign, are emphasized.
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ESD-WP-2008-13
Planning for a Flu Pandemic: Policies to
Empower Individuals and Families
by
Shiva Prakash,
Center for Engineering Systems Fundamentals
Engineering Systems Division
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Stan
Finkelstein M.D.,
Engineering Systems Division
Harvard-MIT Division of Health Sciences
& Technology
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Richard
Larson, Ph.D.,
Center for Engineering Systems Fundamentals
Engineering Systems Division
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
No
one can predict how much sickness and loss
of life will result if and when the next
influenza pandemic occurs. Experts agree,
the issue is not if it will occur, but when.
Whatever that time is, such pandemic flu
would likely overwhelm the capacities of
our hospitals, clinics and emergency services.
Most people ill with the flu will have to
be cared for at home by family members and
other trusted caregivers.
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ESD-WP-2008-12
Growing Towards a Sustainable Biofuel Future:
A Comprehensive Policy Strategy for Navigating
Tradeoffs
and Stakeholder Interests in U.S. Agriculture
Final Report – ESD.10 Introduction
to Technology and Policy
by
Pearl Donohoo, MIT, Technology
and Policy Program
Don MacKenzie, MIT, Technology
and Policy Program
Jeff McAulay, MIT, Technology and
Policy Program
Julio Pertuzé, MIT, Technology
and Policy Program
Addison Stark, MIT, Technology
and Policy Program
Rapid
growth of biofuels production in the United
States is reshaping the agricultural industry,
delivering both benefits and conflict among
stakeholders. Routes forward on biofuels
production should be viewed in the context
of economic, land use, environmental, and
energy security tradeoffs and their potential
impacts in the future. This report discusses
the current, emerging, and prospective conflicts
arising from increased biofuels production,
recommends policies to resolve these conflicts,
and identifies likely areas of support and
opposition from stakeholder groups. The
report focuses heavily on ethanol, because
ethanol accounts for 95 percent of U.S.
biofuels production (Worldwatch 2006); however,
many of the trade-offs and recommendations
identified in the report can and should
be applied to biofuels more generally.
This
report does not attempt to assess whether
or not biofuels are the best option for
transportation fuel use. Rather, it accepts
that current mandates, policies, and market
conditions will result in increased biofuel
production and proposes policies to support
growth in more economically and environmentally
sustainable manners.
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ESD-WP-2008-11
GDP-Based Productivity in Ambulatory Healthcare:
A Comparison with other Industry Segments,
1998-2005
by
David Hartzband
Engineering Systems Division
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Few studies have focused on productivity
in healthcare, let alone in ambulatory healthcare.
Measurement of productivity in various healthcare
segments has generally shown that productivity
has either decreased (over some time period)
or has increased more slowly than in other
industry segments. This study shows that
labor productivity has increased in ambulatory
healthcare between 1998 and 2005 (by ~24%),
but that capital efficiency has not changed
over that time period. The study compared
this result with the same measurements in
the auto and information industry segments
(as defined by the Bureau of Economic Analysis)
and found that labor productivity gains
were highest in the information industry
(34%) and lowest in auto (6%), and that
capital efficiency increased 8% in the information
industry but decreased 7% in auto.
The
study also found a strong linkage between
changes in gross domestic product components
for value-added and gross output and both
labor and capital inputs in ambulatory healthcare.
This linkage was not found in either of
the other two industry segments investigated.
This linkage implies that labor and capital
input account for close to all of the productivity
gains measured in ambulatory healthcare,
but that other factors, such as labor quality,
work process and structural reorganization,
research and development investment and
adoption of new technologies are not affecting
this gain in productivity the way they may
be in auto and the information industry.
This result implies that addressing these
factors may increase productivity in ambulatory
healthcare even more than has been the case
from labor and capital input increases.
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ESD-WP-2008-10
Revisiting R0, the
Basic Reproductive Number for Pandemic Influenza
by
Richard C. Larson
Center for Engineering Systems Fundamentals
Engineering Systems Division
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
This paper focuses on a fundamental
input parameter for most existing mathematical
models of pandemic influenza, the ‘basic
reproductive number R0,’
defined to be the mean number of new influenza
infections created by a newly infected person
in a population of all susceptible people.
We argue that R0 is
limited in policy and scientific value as
is any single parameter attempting to characterize
a complex probabilistic process. In particular,
we demonstrate by simple logic that R0
does not exist as a separate ‘constant
of a particular influenza,’ but rather
its value is determined by social context
and behavioral patterns as well as by the
“physics’’ of the influenza
virus. To the extent that R0
is useful, it is best viewed as an output
of a modeling analysis, not an input. But
with R0 being the
mean of a random variable, much more information
is contained in the entire probability distribution.
With this view, we show – again by
simple arguments – that R0
can be greater than 1.0 and still, contrary
to popular belief, the probability of an
exponentially growing pandemic may be arbitrarily
small. Finally, we show that attempts to
estimate R0 from data
of previous pandemics is fraught with methodological
complexities, due primarily to heterogeneities
in the population that cause super-spreaders
and socially active people to be the first
propagators of the disease. Unless one is
careful, statistical estimates of R0
based on early exponential growth of reported
cases may be significantly upwardly biased.
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ESD-WP-2008-09
Auto ID Paradigm Shifts from Internet of
Things to Unique Identification of Individual
Decisions in System of Systems
by
Shoumen Palit Austin Datta,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Return on investment (ROI) from radio
frequency (RF) based tools of identification
may increase with the diffusion of frequency
agnostic modes of radio frequency identification
(RFID), such as, ultrawideband (UWB). Similarly,
fixed frequency readers may be replaced
with interrogators that can operate in any
frequency, such as software defined radio
(SDR). However, mere identification of objects
provides data that may not be useful unless
the process of data acquisition is further
linked to systems where the data can be
analysed and useful information extracted.
This evolution remains incomplete because
data about objects is only a small segment
of necessary information. Global businesses
and systems, such as healthcare, demand
much more than object data. Often processes
and plans as well as prior decisions are
taken into account when deciding on a future
course of action or may be the next step
in a transaction. Current practice of auto
id, although useful in some instances, remains
only a small part of what is necessary for
identification of information in complex
system of systems. Identification, therefore,
must encompass the ability both tangible
and intangible elements that contribute
to decisions. The unique “address”
must be preserved during information exchange
and decision support between system of systems.
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ESD-WP-2008-08
Design and Management of Flexible Transportation
Networks Through the use of Intelligent
Transportation Systems (ITS)
by
Joshua McConnell,
McKinsey & Co., Sydney Australia
Joseph
Sussman,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Designing a flexible system with real
options is a method for managing uncertainty.
In this research, Intelligent Transportation
System (ITS) capabilities were used to create
a flexible transportation system, capable
of coping with multiple uncertainties. Specifically,
HOT, BRT and TOT managed lanes were examined
in a case study centered in Houston, Tx,
to determine the benefits of flexibility
these capabilities provide. A qualitative
analysis procedure utilizing regional traffic
demand modeling and real options analysis
was utilized to assess these benefits. It
was found that ITS managed lanes can be
configured in multiple ways to create flexibility
in transportation systems, each of which
provides value when dealing with uncertainty.
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ESD-WP-2008-07
A Portfolio Approach for Purchasing Systems:
Impact of Switching Point
by
Olli-Pekka Hilmola,
Lappeenranta University of Technology
Hongze
Ma,
Accenture (Finland)
Shoumen
Palit Austin Datta,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
In operations management different ordering
policies, such as, economic order quantity,
lot for lot and periodic ordering, are used
in various combinations without deeper considerations
for the likely consequences on cash flow
and profitability. The success of these
techniques is analyzed through inventory
levels and/or total cost. In this paper,
we present results of simulation which uses
three different product groups with varying
demand characteristics, changing product
margins and also considers product quality
failures (due to ordering, engineering change
or customer requests). Based on our results,
we suggest a portfolio approach where lot
for lot policy may be useful in an early
phase of the product life-cycle and later
it may be an advantage to change over to
economic order quantity (EOQ) based ordering.
However, demand sustainability and failure
rates create instances where orders in larger
economical lots may reduce profitability.
Therefore, manufacturing may benefit from
a portfolio of different purchase order
policies and may evaluate the successful
balance of policies using cash flow as a
parameter. Accuracy of demand forecasting
is vital to switching point estimation.
Further research on real-world applications
of advanced forecasting tools is advocated
as well as a framework to develop the portfolio
for intelligent purchasing systems.
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ESD-WP-2008-06
Understanding Complexity: Dynamic Analysis
of Combat Vehicle Accidents
by
Maj. Nathan A. Minami,
Instructor/Analyst; United States Military
Academy; Department of Systems Engineering
Stuart
E. Madnick,
John Norris Maguire Professor of Information
Technologies & Professor of Engineering
Systems; Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
Sloan School of Management & School
of Engineering
Dozens of U.S. soldiers are killed each
year as a result of both combat and motor
vehicle accidents. The objective of this
study is to look beyond the events and symptoms
of accidents which normally indicate human
error, and instead study the complex and
poorly understood upper-level organizational
processes and problems that may constitute
the actual root causes of accidents –
this is particularly challenging because
the causes often involve nonlinear dynamic
phenomena and have behaviors that are counter-intuitive
to normal human thinking, these are often
called “wicked” problems. After
reviewing the available literature, a System
Dynamics model was created to provide an
analytical model of this multifaceted system
that allows for extensive simulation. The
results of these simulations suggest that
high-level decisions that balance mission
rate and operations tempo with troop availability,
careful management of the work-rest cycle
for deployed troops, and improvement of
the processes for evaluating the lessons
learned from accidents, will lead to a reduction
in Army combat and motor vehicle accidents.
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ESD-WP-2008-05
Evaluating and Aggregating Data Believability
across Quality Sub-Dimensions and Data Lineage
by
Nicolas Pratt,
ESSEC Business School
Stuart
E. Madnick,
Sloan School of Management, MIT
Data quality is crucial for operational
efficiency and sound decision making. This
paper focuses on believability, a major
aspect of data quality. The issue of believability
is particularly relevant in the context
of Web 2.0, where mashups facilitate the
combination of data from different sources.
Our approach for assessing data believability
is based on provenance and lineage, i.e.
the origin and subsequent processing history
of data. We present the main concepts of
our model for representing and storing data
provenance, and an ontology of the sub-dimensions
of data believability. We then use aggregation
operators to compute believability across
the sub-dimensions of data believability
and the provenance of data. We illustrate
our approach with a scenario based on Internet
data. Our contribution lies in three main
design artifacts (1) the provenance model
(2) the ontology of believability subdimensions
and (3) the method for computing and aggregating
data believability. To our knowledge, this
is the first work to operationalize provenance-based
assessment of data believability.
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ESD-WP-2008-04
Measuring Data Believability: A Provenance
Approach
by
Nicolas Pratt,
ESSEC Business School
Stuart
E. Madnick,
Sloan School of Management, MIT
Data quality is crucial for operational
efficiency and sound decision making. This
paper focuses on believability, a major
aspect of quality, measured along three
dimensions: trustworthiness, reasonableness,
and temporality. We ground our approach
on provenance, i.e. the origin and subsequent
processing history of data. We present our
provenance model and our approach for computing
believability based on provenance metadata.
The approach is structured into three increasingly
complex building blocks: (1) definition
of metrics for assessing the believability
of data sources, (2) definition of metrics
for assessing the believability of data
resulting from one process run and (3) assessment
of believability based on all the sources
and processing history of data. We illustrate
our approach with a scenario based on Internet
data. To our knowledge, this is the first
work to develop a precise approach to measuring
data believability and making explicit use
of provenance-based measurements.
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ESD-WP-2008-03
Enabling Global Price Comparison with Semantic
Integration of Web Data
by
Hongwei Zhu,
College of Business and Public
Administration, Old Dominion University
Stuart
E. Madnick*,
Sloan School of Management, MIT
Michael
Siegel,
Sloan School of Management, MIT
“Sell Globally” and “Shop
Globally” have been seen as a potential
benefit of web-enabled electronic business.
One important step toward realizing this
benefit is to know how things are selling
in various parts of the world. A global
price comparison service would address this
need. But there have not been many such
services. In this paper, we use a case study
of global price dispersion to illustrate
the need and the value of a global price
comparison service. Then we identify and
discuss several technology challenges, including
semantic heterogeneity, in providing a global
price comparison service. We propose a mediation
architecture to address the semantic heterogeneity
problem, and demonstrate the feasibility
of the proposed architecture by implementing
a prototype that enables global price comparison
using data from web sources in several countries.
*Corresponding
author
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ESD-WP-2008-02
Semantic Integration Approach to Efficient
Business Data Supply Chain: Integration
Approach to Interoperable XBRL
by
Hongwei Zhu,
College of Business and Public
Administration, Old Dominion University
Stuart
E. Madnick,
Sloan School of Management, MIT
As an open standard for electronic communication
of business and financial data, XBRL has
the potential of improving the efficiency
of the business data supply chain. A number
of jurisdictions have developed different
XBRL taxonomies as their data standards.
Semantic heterogeneity exists in these taxonomies,
the corresponding instances, and the internal
systems that store the original data. Consequently,
there are still substantial difficulties
in creating and using XBRL instances that
involve multiple taxonomies. To fully realize
the potential benefits of XBRL, we have
to develop technologies to reconcile semantic
heterogeneity and enable interoperability
of various parts of the supply chain. In
this paper, we analyze the XBRL standard
and use examples of different taxonomies
to illustrate the interoperability challenge.
We also propose a technical solution that
incorporates schema matching and context
mediation techniques to improve the efficiency
of the production and consumption of XBRL
data.
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ESD-WP-2008-01
Lean Aerospace Engineering
by
Earll M. Murman
Ford Professor of Engineering Emeritus
Aeronautics and Astronautics Department
and Engineering Systems
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
A framework for Lean Engineering is presented,
based upon observational findings from a
decade of research in the aerospace domain,
published works on Toyota and Southwest
Airlines, and practitioner input. The framework
is illustrated with examples drawn from
aircraft and other aerospace applications.
Lean Engineering is not totally new to aerospace,
and it continues to evolve. Future challenges
are briefly summarized.
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