CIPD Seminar Series:
The Application of Estimation Theory to Managing Risk in Product Developments, by John Deyst, Professor, Aero & Astro, MIT

Abstract:
Risk in product development is defined as the probability that the product will not satisfy all of its requirements. Effective product development, to minimize risk, is posed as an estimation problem. Solutions which quantify the risk are obtained by applying estimation theory and drawing an analogy between design uncertainty and measurement noise. Applications of the solutions are demonstrated by analyzing an aerodynamic design task, optimizing a hypothetical plan for preliminary design of a transport aircraft, and design verification of automobile components.