MIT
predicts
performance
of complex systems
By
Michelle Gaseau, MIT
Lean Aerospace Initiative – February 2, 2007
Taking
a cue from the financial world, MIT researchers along with
experts in industry and government have developed a list of
13 measures that engineers can use to predict how well a system
– or project – will perform before it is even
finished.
Known
as leading indicators, analogous measures are regularly used
by economists, investors and businesses to help predict the
economy's performance.
The
idea behind the new set of leading indicators is to improve
the management and performance of complex programs before
they are delivered, in a more predictive way than simple business
metrics.
"Leading
indicators can provide important insights for managers of
complex programs, such as those in the aerospace industry,
and can allow them to make real-time adjustments to project
activities, staffing and schedules to ensure a project stays
on track," said Donna Rhodes, a principal researcher
for MIT's Lean Aerospace Initiative (LAI).
The
MIT leading indicators project, co-led by Rhodes and industry
colleague Garry Roedler of Lockheed Martin, began in 2004
following an LAI/U.S. Air Force workshop on systems engineering
that established the groundwork for the project. Systems engineering
is an interdisciplinary approach to creating successful systems
by focusing on variables including customer needs, system
requirements, design synthesis and system validation, all
while considering the complete problem.
A
leading indicator may be an individual measure, or collection
of measures, that are predictive of future system performance
before the performance is realized.
The
13 leading indicators defined by the MIT team include risk
handling trends. This indicator would be used by management
to determine whether a project team is proactively handling
potential problems (or risks) at the appropriate times with
the goal of minimizing or eliminating their occurrence. If
the actions to address a given project risk are not taken,
then there is a higher probability that the risk will be realized,
resulting in negative impact to project cost, schedule, performance
or customer satisfaction. The insight gained through the use
of this indicator can help identify where additional effort
may be needed to avoid preventable problems or reduce impacts.
Several
major aerospace companies worked to validate the 13 indicators
in pilot programs during 2006, which helped refine them. Then,
working in collaboration with the International Council on
Systems Engineering (INCOSE), the leading professional society
for systems engineering practitioners, the MIT team published
a guidance document about the work. That document has been
made available to the larger systems engineering community.
According
to Rhodes, "The leading indicators project is an excellent
example of how academic, government and industry experts can
work together to perform collaborative research that has real
impact on engineering practice."
The
other leading indicators identified by the team are: system
definition change; backlog trends; interface trends; requirements
validation trends; requirements verification trends; work
product approval trends; review action closure trends; risk
exposure trends; technology maturity trends; technical measurement
trends; systems engineering staffing & skills trends;
and process compliance trends.
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