CESF
RAs Take Top Honors
at
Student Forum on Science, Technology,
and Policy Poster Session
By
Lois
Slavin, Communications Director,
MIT Engineering Systems Division –
February 10, 2008
MIT
students Karima Nigmatulina and Michael
Metzger recently received first and
second place honors at a poster session
sponsored by the National Academies.
Both are currently pursuing doctoral
studies at MIT’s Operations
Research Center and working as research
assistants in the Center
for Engineering Systems Fundamentals
(CESF) within MIT’s Engineering
Systems Division. Professor Richard
C. Larson, CESF’s director,
serves as research supervisor to both.
The
poster session was part of a two-day
public event entitled “Student
Forum on Science, Technology and Policy.”
Intended for students, postdoctoral
fellows, and recent graduates interested
in studying and pursuing careers in
these areas, it was held in Washington,
DC, on January 4-5, 2008.
The event
featured both invited presentations
and interactive discussions that convened
a cross-section of government, academia,
and industry to address practice and
opportunities in the science and technology
professions. The poster session was
designed to enable students to share
their work with a wide range of policy
professionals.
Karima,
a third year PhD student, was awarded
first place for her poster,
which focused on government and community
interventions for stopping pandemic
flu. Although many researchers, primarily
epidemiologists, have examined this
complex challenge, Karima’s
work goes beyond medical interventions
and other traditional methods because
it employs an interdisciplinary engineering
systems approach.
This
engineering systems approach requires
a multifaceted perspective that incorporates
engineering, management and policy/social
sciences. For example, the engineering
component requires the use of modeling
to anticipate biological engineering
considerations for manufacturing vaccine;
the management component includes
managing the facilities and staff
producing the vaccines and the supply
chain to deliver it where needed –
especially after flu has started to
spread, employees are infected, and
facilities contaminated; and policy
issues involve some that present ethical
dilemma that policy makers must address
now, such as determining who should
receive the vaccine – the elderly
and higher risk individuals or the
healthy high spreaders of the disease.
Karima
and researchers in CESF and ORC believe
that mathematical modeling is the
best way to thoroughly consider different
pandemic scenarios and evaluate the
effectiveness of various flu management
policies. She notes that the most
powerful interventions seem to be
those that can be done on an individual
basis, such as frequent hand washing
-- not only by medical professionals,
but also by lay persons. Other interventions
that individuals can practice include
respiratory etiquette, using UV lighting
to disinfect surfaces and better ventilation
systems.
Karima
added that a combination of medical
and non-medical – as well as
individual and societal -- interventions
are needed. This will include educating
the public before an epidemic, helping
businesses prepare to modify the work
environment, managing transportation,
ensuring adequate food supplies, and
enabling states to coordinate efforts
and work together effectively. “Until
now, most researchers have focused
on a single intervention, but at CESF
and ORC, we hope to show a mathematical
way of describing which combinations
of interventions will be effective
and which will not,” she said.”
Karima
earned her BEng in operations research
and financial engineering at Princeton,
with minors in Public and International
Affairs (from the Woodrow Wilson School
of Public and International Affairs),
Finance, Engineering Management Systems
and Dance.
In addition
to conducting her doctoral research,
Karima is now working on an flu task
force at MIT to determine how to address
Institute-specific issues, such as
whether and how to evacuate students
from campus in the event of a pandemic
and subsequent travel restrictions,
how to manage food supplies and staffing,
while planning for resultant legal
implications.
Michael
Metzger, a fourth year PhD student,
won second place at the forum for
his poster entitled “Avoiding
the Eye of the Storm,” which
outlines the use of decision modeling
to mitigate risks and damage in hurricane
emergencies.
Using
an engineering systems approach, Metzger’s
presentation outlined the complex
fixed and variable factors in planning
for hurricane emergencies. Fixed include
pre-positioning supplies and pre-planning
for mobilization and deployment of
personnel to assist residents in stricken
areas. Variables include the storm’s
location, time and intensity.
To address
these issues, Metzger used a stochastic
dynamic program incorporating economic,
social, and logistical impacts of
alternative sequential decisions.
While some costs are easy to calculate,
such as fuel for busses to evacuate
residents, others like the specifics
of evacuating the elderly are more
difficult. Nevertheless, because economists
believe the latter could run as much
as $1million/mile, finding ways to
model the costs is essential.
Metzger’s
doctoral work seeks to define and
develop such a model. He received
both his BS in computer science and
management and his MS in Electrical
Engineering and Computer Science from
MIT. He has been honored with the
Goodwin Medal and other MIT awards
for being an outstanding teaching
assistant.
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