Special Luncheon Seminar sponsored by HST and ESD

Engineering Health and Healthy Engineering:
Using Quantitative Risk Analysis to Improve Decisions in Complex Systems

By Kimberly M. Thompson, ScD
Associate Professor of Risk Analysis and Decision Science
Harvard School of Public Health

Hosts Professors Martha Gray and Yossi Sheffi

Abstract:
This talk will demonstrate the utility of mathematical models that characterize variability, uncertainty, and time in a range of complex systems. Using these types of models, decision makers can provide important context, identify options for improvement of outcomes, and explore important interactions between technological and social factors. For example, new life-saving and time-saving devices must consider uncertainties about outcomes (such as device failure) that may lead to unintended consequences. In contrast, optimizing decisions for individuals (such as targeting treatment based on risk factors to “personalize” medicine) requires explicit characterization of variability in the population.

The process of taking any new concept from bench to bedside involves understanding the social, political, legal, and economic complexities of the system, above and beyond the basic science and engineering related to research and development. Insights from current research on polioviruses demonstrate the difficult choices involved and the trade-offs associated with spending billions of dollars on vaccinations.

About Kimberly M. Thompson:
Dr. Kimberly Thompson is Associate Professor of Risk Analysis and Decision Science at the Harvard School of Public Health. Professor Thompson's research and teaching focus on developing and applying quantitative methods for risk analysis, and on the role of uncertainty, variability, and time in risk characterization and communication. Drawing on a diverse background, she seeks to effectively integrate technological, social, political, legal, and economic issues into analyses that consider the potential risk tradeoffs associated with different policies and management strategies. Professor Thompson continues to explore the implications of using different analytical tools for structuring information. As the use of quantitative analysis continues to grow, her research examines how the type of analysis used (e.g., cost-effectiveness analysis, cost-benefit analysis, decision analysis, value-of-information analysis, risk-only or health-only analysis, etc.) influences policy debates and outcomes. Professor Thompson's work currently focuses heavily on system dynamics and dynamic modeling, particularly in the context of modeling policies for polio risk management after the success of global eradication, but her research spans a wide range of engineering and health risks. Dr. Thompson is a Past President and Fellow of the Society for Risk Analysis. She earned a Doctor of Science degree from the Harvard School of Public Health and Bachelor and Master of Science Degrees in Chemical Engineering from M.I.T.