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ESD
Dissertation Defense – Anup
Bandivadekar
Evaluating
the Impact of Advanced Vehicle and
Fuel Technologies in U.S. Light-Duty
Vehicle Fleet
Abstract:
The unrelenting increase in oil use
by the U.S. light-duty vehicle (LDV)
fleet presents an extremely challenging
energy and environmental problem.
A variety of propulsion technologies
and fuels have the promise to reduce
petroleum use and greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions from motor vehicles. Previous
work in this domain has compared individual
vehicle or fuel alternatives. The
aim of this research was to deepen
the understanding of the likely scale
and timing of the fleet-wide impact
of emerging technologies.
A
model of the light-duty vehicle fleet
showed that fuel consumption of mainstream
gasoline internal combustion engine
(ICE) technology vehicles will determine
the trajectory of fleet fuel use and
GHG emissions over the next two decades.
Using vehicle simulations and historical
data, the trade-off between vehicle
performance, size and fuel consumption
was quantified. It was shown that
up to 26 percent reduction in future
LDV fuel use is possible with mainstream
gasoline ICE vehicles alone if emphasis
of vehicle technology is on reducing
fuel consumption rather than improving
performance. Addressing this vehicle
performance-size-fuel
consumption trade-off should be the
priority for policymakers.
By
considering both supply and demand
side constraints on building up vehicle
production rates, three plausible
scenarios of advanced vehicle market
penetration were developed. Due to
strong competition from mainstream
gasoline vehicles and high initial
cost, market penetration rates of
diesels and gasoline hybrids in the
U.S. are likely to be slow. As a result,
diesels and gasoline hybrids have
only a modest, though growing potential
for reducing fleet fuel use before
2025. In general, the time-scales
to impact of new technologies are
twenty to twenty-five years.
Integrating
vehicle and fuel scenarios showed
that measures which reduce greenhouse
gas emissions also reduce petroleum
consumption, but the converse is not
necessarily true. Policy efforts therefore
should be focused on measures that
improve both energy security and carbon
emissions at the same time. While
up to 35 percent reduction in fleet
GHG emissions from a No Change scenario
is possible by 2035, the magnitude
of changes required to achieve these
reductions are daunting, as all of
the current trends run counter to
the changes required.
Thesis
Supervisor:
John B. Heywood
Chair:
David H. Marks
Committee
Members:
John P. Holdren, Henry D. Jacoby
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